{"id":9494,"date":"2025-06-15T03:37:15","date_gmt":"2025-06-15T03:37:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.incredmoney.com\/blog\/?p=9494"},"modified":"2025-06-15T03:37:15","modified_gmt":"2025-06-15T03:37:15","slug":"magicians-markets-missed-signals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/","title":{"rendered":"Magicians, Markets & Missed Signals"},"content":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s a classic trick magicians love: they\u2019ll make you watch the left hand, while the real move happens in the right. The trick? Misdirection. But beneath it lies a deeper truth\u2014humans tend to focus only on what is in front of them, and not what actually matters.<\/p>\n

That, in behavioural science, is called inattentional blindness bias \u2014 our mind\u2019s blind spot when it’s too fixated on one thing to notice another.<\/p>\n

Let me give you a more everyday example.<\/p>\n

Every time I write an article, I proofread it. I check, re-check, read it out loud\u2026 and still, there\u2019s a high chance I miss that one typo. But hand it to someone else, and they spot it instantly.<\/p>\n

Why? Because I\u2019m so fixated on my content, my brain auto-fills what it expects to see, not what\u2019s actually there.<\/p>\n

There was actually an academic experiment conducted on this very bias.<\/p>\n

Pass the ball<\/h2>\n

Watch this short video here.<\/a><\/p>\n

Your task: Count how many times the players in white pass the ball.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s exactly what psychologists Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons asked their volunteers.<\/p>\n

Most got the pass count right. But they missed the man wearing a gorilla costume, walking into the frame, beating his chest, and leaving.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s inattentional blindness: when we focus so hard on one thing, we become blind to everything else.<\/p>\n

But what if I told you this same blind spot is quietly costing investors money\u2014often in ways we don’t even realize?<\/p>\n

The case of Asian Paints<\/h2>\n

Everybody had unshakeable confidence in Asian Paints because it had been the market leader in a fragmented industry for far too long.<\/p>\n

Asian Paints\u2019 stock delivered high returns<\/a> between 2013 and 2021\u2014both in terms of price appreciation and earnings growth. Investors believed in its brand, moat, and scale\u2014and paid any price for it.<\/p>\n

Enter Birla Opus with its \u20b910,000 crore investment targeting that very moat which everyone thought was unshakable.<\/p>\n

Even after their entry, most believed Asian Paints would remain the undisputed leader. And they still are\u2014but simply not undisputed.<\/p>\n

Asian Paints, once the price setter, became the price taker. Volumes shrank, and even margins compressed. Marketing spend surged. The stock corrected ~33% within 3 months (between 13 September 24 and 27 December 24), correcting to a valuation that was finally grounded in reality.<\/p>\n

Yes Bank: The Growth Illusion<\/h2>\n

Between FY17 and FY19, before the bank took the final blow in FY20, its net interest income (NII) had nearly doubled, from \u20b93,900 crore to \u20b97,000 crore. The stock rallied, analysts cheered, and the growth narrative gained serious momentum.<\/p>\n

But beneath the surface, cracks were starting to show.<\/p>\n

Net interest margins fell to 2.5% in FY19\u2014below the industry average. Meanwhile, gross NPAs jumped over 13x, from \u20b91,272 crore (FY17) to \u20b917,134 crore (FY19). Even its Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), which shows how well a bank can absorb losses, slipped below the RBI\u2019s 10.875% requirement.<\/p>\n

In hindsight, the warning signs<\/a> were all there but they were drowned out by the excitement of growth.<\/p>\n

The comeback of a Tech Giant<\/h2>\n

When Satya Nadella was appointed CEO in 2014, many investors were skeptical. The company was struggling in the mobile space and was seen as falling behind in innovation.<\/p>\n

But while the market was busy focusing on what Microsoft wasn\u2019t, Nadella quietly shifted focus to what mattered\u2014cloud computing, AI, and enterprise software. Those who weren\u2019t blinded by the noise and saw the fundamentals improving were richly rewarded.<\/p>\n

If you had invested $10,000 on Nadella\u2019s first day as CEO, it would be worth around $114,000 by 2024<\/a>\u2014likely even more today.<\/p>\n

Sometimes, inattentional blindness bias isn\u2019t just about missing the red flags. It\u2019s also about missing the quiet green ones.<\/p>\n

So, how do you beat this inattentional bias?<\/h2>\n

Truth is\u2014it\u2019s tough. Even experts fall for it.<\/p>\n

But Warren Buffett once said, \u201cBuy into a company because you want to own it, not because you want the stock to go up.\u201d That mindset alone filters out a lot of noise. It forces you to study the business, not the buzz.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what helps further:<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t chase stories: Follow the numbers<\/p>\n

Get a second set of eyes: A friend may spot what you overlook<\/p>\n

Revisit the basics: Sometimes, what\u2019s boring is what\u2019s most important.<\/p>\n

And importantly, when it comes to investments, be diversified. When it comes to investing in stocks, for example, you can have a strategy of say not investing more than 5% in a particular stock. So even if you go wrong in a particular stock due to this bias, your losses are contained.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

I hope you enjoyed this newsletter and if you did, feel free to share it with your friends and family.<\/p>\n

Also, if you have any topics that you would like us to cover or any other feedback, do write to us at connect@incredmoney.com<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Till the next time,
\nVijay
\nCEO – InCred Money<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s a classic trick magicians love: they\u2019ll make you watch the left hand, while the real move happens in the right. The trick? Misdirection. But beneath it lies a deeper truth\u2014humans tend to focus only on what is in front of them, and not what actually matters. That, in behavioural science, is called inattentional blindness […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":9495,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-9494","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsletter","tag-newsletter"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMagicians, Markets & Missed Signals - InCred Money<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Magicians, Markets & Missed Signals - InCred Money\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There\u2019s a classic trick magicians love: they\u2019ll make you watch the left hand, while the real move happens in the right. The trick? Misdirection. But beneath it lies a deeper truth\u2014humans tend to focus only on what is in front of them, and not what actually matters. That, in behavioural science, is called inattentional blindness […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"InCred Money\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-06-15T03:37:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/15033529\/Warrens-Wealth-of-Wisdom.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Vijay Kuppa\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Vijay Kuppa\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":[\"Article\",\"BlogPosting\"],\"@id\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Vijay Kuppa\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/0613ebd2ee5d43f299b58a95a2d535c4\"},\"headline\":\"Magicians, Markets & Missed Signals\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-06-15T03:37:15+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/\"},\"wordCount\":825,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/15033529\/Warrens-Wealth-of-Wisdom.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Newsletter\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Newsletter\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/\",\"name\":\"Magicians, Markets & Missed Signals - InCred Money\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/15033529\/Warrens-Wealth-of-Wisdom.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-06-15T03:37:15+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/0613ebd2ee5d43f299b58a95a2d535c4\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/15033529\/Warrens-Wealth-of-Wisdom.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/15033529\/Warrens-Wealth-of-Wisdom.png\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":600},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Magicians, Markets & Missed Signals\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"InCred Money\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/0613ebd2ee5d43f299b58a95a2d535c4\",\"name\":\"Vijay Kuppa\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7dfe464a7ea35d14354919395e26a3a098c6697044db7eb239f49e4791467817?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7dfe464a7ea35d14354919395e26a3a098c6697044db7eb239f49e4791467817?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7dfe464a7ea35d14354919395e26a3a098c6697044db7eb239f49e4791467817?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Vijay Kuppa\"},\"description\":\"CEO - InCred Money\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/vijay-kuppa-64622912\/\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/author\/vijaykuppa\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Magicians, Markets & Missed Signals - InCred Money","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Magicians, Markets & Missed Signals - InCred Money","og_description":"There\u2019s a classic trick magicians love: they\u2019ll make you watch the left hand, while the real move happens in the right. The trick? Misdirection. But beneath it lies a deeper truth\u2014humans tend to focus only on what is in front of them, and not what actually matters. That, in behavioural science, is called inattentional blindness […]","og_url":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/","og_site_name":"InCred Money","article_published_time":"2025-06-15T03:37:15+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1200,"height":600,"url":"https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/15033529\/Warrens-Wealth-of-Wisdom.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"Vijay Kuppa","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Vijay Kuppa","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":["Article","BlogPosting"],"@id":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/"},"author":{"name":"Vijay Kuppa","@id":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/0613ebd2ee5d43f299b58a95a2d535c4"},"headline":"Magicians, Markets & Missed Signals","datePublished":"2025-06-15T03:37:15+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/"},"wordCount":825,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/15033529\/Warrens-Wealth-of-Wisdom.png","keywords":["Newsletter"],"articleSection":["Newsletter"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/","url":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/","name":"Magicians, Markets & Missed Signals - InCred Money","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/15033529\/Warrens-Wealth-of-Wisdom.png","datePublished":"2025-06-15T03:37:15+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/0613ebd2ee5d43f299b58a95a2d535c4"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/15033529\/Warrens-Wealth-of-Wisdom.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/15033529\/Warrens-Wealth-of-Wisdom.png","width":1200,"height":600},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/magicians-markets-missed-signals\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Magicians, Markets & Missed Signals"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/","name":"InCred Money","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/0613ebd2ee5d43f299b58a95a2d535c4","name":"Vijay Kuppa","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7dfe464a7ea35d14354919395e26a3a098c6697044db7eb239f49e4791467817?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7dfe464a7ea35d14354919395e26a3a098c6697044db7eb239f49e4791467817?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7dfe464a7ea35d14354919395e26a3a098c6697044db7eb239f49e4791467817?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Vijay Kuppa"},"description":"CEO - InCred Money","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/vijay-kuppa-64622912\/"],"url":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/author\/vijaykuppa\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9494","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9494"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9494\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9498,"href":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9494\/revisions\/9498"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9495"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9494"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9494"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9494"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}