{"id":9289,"date":"2025-06-01T03:39:12","date_gmt":"2025-06-01T03:39:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.incredmoney.com\/blog\/?p=9289"},"modified":"2025-06-01T04:04:33","modified_gmt":"2025-06-01T04:04:33","slug":"is-it-going-to-rain-on-the-economy-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/is-it-going-to-rain-on-the-economy-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Is it going to Rain on the Economy?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Last year, we talked about how the mischievous El Ni\u00f1o made a mess of India\u2019s monsoon\u2014causing a 6% rainfall deficit &#8211; hitting crops, cooling rural demand, and pushing up inflation. (Check out the previous edition <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incredmoney.com\/blog\/how_a_little_boy_disrupted_our_economy\/\">here<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>This year, it\u2019s d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu with a twist. Instead of delayed or deficient rains, large parts of India have seen early and above-normal showers. From Kerala to Maharashtra and even Mumbai (which just had its wettest May in over a century), rains have arrived well ahead of schedule. In fact, the monsoon\u2019s swift march from Kerala to Maharashtra in a single day\u2014May 24\u2014was last seen in <a href=\"https:\/\/timesofindia.indiatimes.com\/city\/mumbai\/monsoon-milestone-mumbai-logs-wettest-may-in-over-a-century-orange-alert-upgraded-to-red\/articleshow\/121408021.cms\">1971.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>So, what\u2019s going on here?<\/p>\n<h2>According to IMD&#8230;<\/h2>\n<p>The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted an above-normal monsoon for 2025\u2014around <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbctv18.com\/india\/environment\/imd-forecasts-above-normal-monsoon-in-india-for-2025-19611233.htm\">105% of the Long Period Average (LPA).<\/a> While that may sound like a sigh of relief after last year\u2019s chaos, experts are quick to caution: what matters most is not just the total rainfall, but how and when it falls. Early and uneven rainfall can be just as disruptive as deficient monsoons.<\/p>\n<h2>Why are we seeing early rainfall?<\/h2>\n<p>Multiple global and regional climate factors have contributed to this year&#8217;s early and intense onset:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>El Ni\u00f1o Conditions:<\/strong> With no strong El Ni\u00f1o suppressing monsoon currents, conditions were ripe for an early arrival.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=wVlfyhs64IY\">Click here to know more about El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Reduced Snow Cover:<\/strong> Eurasian and Himalayan snow cover was below normal this year, leading to quicker land heating and stronger monsoon circulation.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Strong Somali Jet:<\/strong> These moisture-rich winds intensified early this year, pushing rain into India&#8217;s west coast faster than usual.<a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/DLCCaWp7564\">Click here to know more about Somali Jet<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Favourable MJO Phase:<\/strong> The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)\u2014a moving weather disturbance\u2014was in a phase that encouraged rainfall across southern part of India in May.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=CUC7K0tiwrE\">Click here to know more about Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>So, what\u2019s the catch?<\/h2>\n<p>While early and abundant rains may seem like a gift, they bring their own set of problems.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Damage to Standing Crops:<\/strong> Rabi crops like onions and pulses\u2014waiting to be harvested\u2014were hit by heavy rain in regions like Maharashtra. Even word is going around that supply and quality of Mangoes is also affected. This not only impacts farmer incomes but can also lead to supply shocks and higher food prices.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Disruption to Business Cycles:<\/strong> Summer product sales\u2014from air-conditioners to soft drinks\u2014plunged in April due to cooler weather and untimely showers. In some regions, sales of refrigerators and ACs dropped <a href=\"https:\/\/brandequity.economictimes.indiatimes.com\/news\/business-of-brands\/not-cool-ac-and-refrigerator-sales-witness-sharp-decline\/120750641\">20% year-on-year<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Inflation Risks:<\/strong> Vegetable prices are notoriously sensitive to erratic weather. <a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/news\/economy\/indicators\/india-early-monsoon-rains-vegetable-prices-crop-damage-inflation-risk\/articleshow\/121458449.cms?from=mdr\">Early rains have already driven up tomato and onion prices<\/a>. If this trend continues, retail inflation\u2014currently at a four-year low\u2014could reverse, affecting the Reserve Bank of India\u2019s ability to cut interest rates.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Interrupted Monsoon Progression:<\/strong> After a strong start, the monsoon often pauses due to dry air from higher latitudes. This \u201cbreak phase\u201d can delay rainfall in other parts of India, impacting sowing schedules.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>And yet, there\u2019s a Silver Lining<\/h2>\n<p>Let\u2019s not rain on our own parade just yet. There are clear positives to this early onset:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Boost to Reservoirs &amp; Hydropower:<\/strong> Early rains can replenish water bodies and support hydroelectric output, reducing dependence on thermal power.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Hope for Kharif Season:<\/strong> With <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mahyco.com\/indian-agricultures.html\">60% of India\u2019s farmland still dependent on rain<\/a>, a timely start to the monsoon bodes well for rice, pulses, and oilseeds.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Rural Demand Revival:<\/strong> A good harvest means better farm incomes, which translates into stronger rural consumption\u2014a critical growth engine for FMCG and durables.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>It\u2019s not just about \u2018More\u2019 Rain, But \u2018Better\u2019 Rain<br \/>\n<\/strong><br \/>\nAs we move deeper into the monsoon season, where and when it rains will be crucial. A strong start doesn\u2019t guarantee a happy ending\u2014especially in this era of climate change, where past weather patterns are no longer a reliable guide.<\/p>\n<p>For now, we watch the skies and track the data. And as always, the monsoon remains one of India\u2019s most powerful economic indicators\u2014one that flows directly from clouds to crops, and from there, to consumption, inflation, and growth.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>I hope you enjoyed this newsletter and if you did, feel free to share it with your friends and family.<\/p>\n<p>Also, if you have any topics that you would like us to cover or any other feedback, do write to us at connect@incredmoney.com<\/p>\n<p>Till the next time,<br \/>\nVijay<br \/>\nCEO &#8211; InCred Money<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last year, we talked about how the mischievous El Ni\u00f1o made a mess of India\u2019s monsoon\u2014causing a 6% rainfall deficit &#8211; hitting crops, cooling rural demand, and pushing up inflation. (Check out the previous edition here) This year, it\u2019s d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu with a twist. Instead of delayed or deficient rains, large parts of India have [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":9285,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-9289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsletter","tag-newsletter"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is it going to Rain on the Economy? - InCred Money<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/is-it-going-to-rain-on-the-economy-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is it going to Rain on the Economy? - InCred Money\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Last year, we talked about how the mischievous El Ni\u00f1o made a mess of India\u2019s monsoon\u2014causing a 6% rainfall deficit &#8211; hitting crops, cooling rural demand, and pushing up inflation. 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