{"id":6286,"date":"2024-12-29T06:13:19","date_gmt":"2024-12-29T06:13:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.incredmoney.com\/blog\/?p=6286"},"modified":"2025-01-23T12:25:34","modified_gmt":"2025-01-23T12:25:34","slug":"flashback-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/flashback-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Flashback 2024: a Roller-Coaster Ride"},"content":{"rendered":"

2024 has truly zipped by \u2014 it feels like the year just started, and here we are at the end! For us at InCred Money, this year has been nothing short of an exhilarating ride!<\/span><\/p>\n

We proudly launched the <\/span>InCred Money app<\/b>, along with exciting new products like <\/span>Fixed Deposits<\/b> and <\/span>Unlisted Equities<\/b>, which received an incredible response.<\/span><\/p>\n

One of the things I\u2019ve really looked forward to this year is – to share interesting and thought – provoking ideas through my newsletter with all of you. Many of you have written to me, saying that you’ve enjoyed reading them and even suggested some great topics.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the beginning of 2024, we unveiled our<\/span> Top Risks for 2024<\/b><\/a> –<\/b> a comprehensive risk matrix, highlighting potential risks that could impact our portfolios. Looking back, it\u2019s fascinating to see how some of these risks played out \u2014 many as we predicted, and others with some surprising twists.<\/span><\/p>\n

As the year winds down, let\u2019s take a journey down memory lane and relive some of the most intriguing and defining moments of 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

Get ready for a quick, action-packed flashback \u2014 it\u2019s worth the ride!<\/span><\/p>\n


\nConflicts, Wars & some Natural (man-made) Disasters<\/b><\/h2>\n

The <\/span>Russia-Ukraine<\/b> tug-of-war entered its third year with both Zelensky and Putin unwilling to relent. North Korea has stepped in to support its ally, Russia, while Ukraine continues to rely on the West for military aid. With Biden bidding farewell, could Trump emerge as the peacemaker?<\/span><\/p>\n

The <\/span>Middle East<\/b>, too, remained a cauldron of chaos. The conflict escalated following Hamas\u2019 attack in October 2023. Israel hit back and kept the Triple H (Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis) at bay. What began as an Israel-Palestine conflict has now morphed into a <\/span>larger Israel-Iran faceoff<\/b>. In <\/span>Syria<\/b>, the long-standing dictatorship of Bashar Al-Assad came to an end and hopes are high for a new regime focused on peace and stability.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bangladesh burned.<\/b> Quota reforms and rising unemployment led to bloody protests which culminated in Prime Minister Sheikh Haseena escaping the country. With a tense political situation, can some businesses shift to India?<\/span><\/p>\n

On the climate front, 2024 scorched its way into the record books as the hottest year in history. The global temperature <\/span>surpassed the <\/b>1.5\u00b0C mark<\/b><\/a> above pre-industrial levels, a fiery warning that\u2019s impossible to ignore. Natural disasters, though not directly linked to climate change, painted a grim picture: <\/span>Kerala\u2019s landslides, Hurricane Helene in the US, a drought in South America, and flooding across Spain, Afghanistan, and Pakistan<\/span><\/i>. Can we really afford to ignore the climate crisis?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Welcome to the era of <\/span>\u2018man made natural disasters\u2019.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n


\nPolitics<\/b><\/h2>\n

2024 earned its title as the <\/span>\u201cSuper Year of Elections,\u201d<\/i><\/b> with <\/span>72 countries<\/span><\/a> and more than 50% of the world\u2019s population heading to polls. The marquee ones? India and the US.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It was a tough year for incumbent governments, with economic pessimism driving dissatisfaction among voters worldwide.<\/span><\/p>\n

In India, the <\/span>Modi-led BJP-NDA<\/b> secured another term but with a reduced majority, raising some concerns. However, a sweeping victory in Maharashtra\u2019s state elections helped restore faith in the ruling coalition.<\/span><\/p>\n

Immigration policies, rising inflation, and sluggish economic growth have paved the way for Right-Wing parties to gain traction among voters in Continental Europe, challenging the decades-long dominance of Left-Wing Socialism. The UK, however, bucked the trend, swinging Left as the Labour Party, the nation\u2019s socialist force, decisively ousted Rishi Sunak\u2019s Conservatives (a.k.a. the Tories).<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the blockbuster movie that everyone had eyes on was the <\/span>US Election.<\/b> A year back, few would have given chances to Donald Trump with age & criminal convictions against him. Trump dodged many bullets, including one literally at his Pennsylvania rally, which turned out to be a pivotal point. Elon Musk(eteer) & his X\u2013Men put all their weight behind Trump leading to a Red Republic sweep in the US.<\/span><\/p>\n

Whether the next four years under Trump promise to be either MAGAnificient or a descent into MAGAlomania\u2014 only time will tell.<\/span><\/p>\n

But what did we learn?<\/span><\/p>\n

Populism is the reigning trend. Voters are rejecting elitist parties with out-of-touch ideologies and demanding strong leaders who can deliver economic improvement. Woke policies, diversity mandates, and endless funding for wars? The people\u2019s verdict is clear: enough of that.<\/span><\/p>\n


\nState of the Economy<\/b><\/h2>\n

We had predicted a <\/span>slowdown in consumer spending<\/span><\/a> and economic growth, and the numbers now show it. India\u2019s Q2FY25 GDP growth rate was a lackluster 5.4%, with businesses raising alarms about decreasing demand.<\/span><\/p>\n

Urban consumption, auto sales, and credit offtake have shown signs of slowing down. Higher taxes and convoluted tax rates have left the common man frustrated. Meanwhile, recent headlines are full of why sugary popcorn faces a much steeper tax bite than its salty counterpart.<\/span><\/p>\n

Inflation in India hasn\u2019t materially come down to warrant a rate cut. The RBI has also been flagging concerns over personal lending and microfinance, with Q2FY25 results showing a rise in NPAs (Non-Performing Assets) and a slowdown in lending. We bid adieu to Mr. Shaktikanta Das, whose remarkable balancing act boosted the economy without letting it overheat.<\/span><\/p>\n

China\u2019s economy is also facing <\/span>structural headwinds<\/span><\/a> – ageing population, real estate slowdown and threats of tariffs looming under the Trump administration. In response, China\u2019s government unveiled stimulus packages, including interest rate cuts by China\u2019s central bank, PBOC, to boost the economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

On a positive note, it seems that there would be a soft landing in the US economy with inflation and unemployment remaining under control. The Federal Reserve (i.e. the central bank of the US), started with their rate cuts in September and has cut a total of 100 basis points.<\/span><\/p>\n


\nFinancial Markets<\/b><\/h2>\n

The great economist JM Keynes once said,<\/span><\/p>\n

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”<\/b><\/p>\n

And 2024 proved this to be true! Despite warnings about high valuations in the small- and mid-cap segments, these stocks continued to reach new highs, driven by ever-expanding valuations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even with a slowdown in the economy and earnings, the stock market’s valuation seems… well, lofty. India, with its high valuations, faced a wave of FII (Foreign Institutional Investor) selling who sold over 1.2 Lakh Crore worth of stocks in 2024. While the FIIs moved their money to China, where valuations were favourable, their selling was offset by strong flows from domestic mutual fund SIPs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even the <\/span>hike in equity taxation<\/b> couldn’t stall the stock market rally. The year also saw one of the busiest IPO markets in history. IPO fundraising reached <\/span>\u20b91.8 lakh crore<\/b>\u20142.6 times the funds raised in 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

But India wasn’t the only market where stocks looked inflated. The US markets, led by the “Magnificent 7” tech stocks, kept hitting new highs. With a likely tax cut in the pipeline, there’s consensus that the rally could continue.<\/span><\/p>\n

In a landmark move, the US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) <\/span>approved Bitcoin ETFs<\/b> in January, giving crypto enthusiasts a major victory.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gold glimmered & Silver shined with both giving returns of 20%+ in 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

The term of the year probably goes to <\/span>\u2018The Yen Carry Trade\u2019<\/b><\/a>. The Bank of Japan\u2019s decision to raise interest rates led to a panic in the investing community. They had borrowed at near zero interest rates in Japanese Yen and invested in other economies to earn better returns. With borrowing now expensive, investors started unwinding this Yen carry trade which led to a market crash in August.<\/span><\/p>\n

The lesson from 2024 was simple – <\/span>DIVERSIFY!<\/b> You won\u2019t always know the flavour of the season.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Entering 2025<\/b><\/h2>\n

As 2024 wraps up, I can\u2019t help but feel excited about what 2025 has in store. It\u2019s shaping up to be another thrilling year, full of unexpected twists and turns. We\u2019ll kick things off in January with the <\/span>second edition of our Top Risks report <\/b>\u2014 your go-to guide for navigating the year ahead.<\/span><\/p>\n

My mantra for investments stays the same: Diversify, Diversify, Diversify. After launching two fantastic products at opposite ends of the risk spectrum, we\u2019re working hard to bring you even more avenues to spread your investments and grow your wealth.<\/span><\/p>\n

A big thank you to all the investors on our platform\u2014you\u2019ve made 2024 an incredible year for us at InCred Money. I\u2019m sure 2025 will be just as exciting and rewarding, for both you and us.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Till the next year,
\n<\/span>Vijay
\n<\/span>CEO \u2013 InCred Money<\/span><\/p>\n


\nP.S. I share my thoughts on Investing and the Economy regularly. You can follow me here.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2024 has truly zipped by \u2014 it feels like the year just started, and here we are at the end! For us at InCred Money, this year has been nothing short of an exhilarating ride! 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