{"id":5329,"date":"2024-07-03T19:42:53","date_gmt":"2024-07-03T14:12:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/incredmoney.wpcomstaging.com\/?p=5329"},"modified":"2025-02-19T06:29:56","modified_gmt":"2025-02-19T06:29:56","slug":"how_a_little_boy_disrupted_our_economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/how_a_little_boy_disrupted_our_economy\/","title":{"rendered":"How a little boy disrupted our economy?"},"content":{"rendered":"

June – the first month of India’s crucial monsoon season is about to end and here\u2019s a small highlight: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the country has received only 64.5 mm of rainfall between June 1 and 18, which is\u00a020% lower\u00a0<\/b>than the long-period average (LPA) of 80.6 mm.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

(LPA is the average rainfall recorded for a period over the past 50 years.)<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n

This lacklustre beginning comes on the heels of an intense heat wave earlier this year, offering little reassurance following the unpredictable monsoon of 2023 which was quite\u00a0erratic resulting in an\u00a0overall deficit of 6% compared to its LPA<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Do you know who was the main culprit behind this? It’s a\u00a0\u2018Little Boy\u2019<\/b>\u00a0– also known as\u00a0\u2018El Ni\u00f1o\u2019<\/b>\u00a0in Spanish.\u00a0The El Ni\u00f1o phenomena occurs when ocean surface temperatures rise, leading to a drought in some regions and excessive rain in others.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

On the other hand, there is also a\u00a0La Ni\u00f1a<\/b>\u00a0phenomena which means\u00a0\u2018Little Girl\u2019\u00a0<\/b>in Spanish, that occurs with cooler ocean temperatures and triggers opposite weather patterns.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In India, El Ni\u00f1o often brings weaker monsoons and droughts, while La Ni\u00f1a can result in stronger monsoons and heavier rainfall.<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For more information about El Ni\u00f1o & La Ni\u00f1a, you can check this explainer video\u00a0here<\/span><\/a>.<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n

Over the past seven decades, El Ni\u00f1o has struck 15 times, with India experiencing below-normal rainfall in nine instances. Basically, El Ni\u00f1o is bad news for our agricultural sector and economy by and large.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Here\u2019s how:<\/span><\/p>\n

High dependence on monsoon:<\/b>\u00a0In India,\u00a0even today\u00a061% of farmers rely on rain<\/b>\u00a0for agriculture. Hence, a plentiful and\u00a0well-distributed monsoon is crucial.\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o events typically lead to a slower growth in agriculture, which in turn affects GDP.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Higher Inflation:<\/b>\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o results in lower harvests, leading to elevated levels of food inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Strain on water resources:\u00a0<\/b>Erratic monsoons have strained India’s water resources. The recent heatwave has exacerbated the issue, causing water shortages in many cities, including Bengaluru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Reduction in rural income and demand:<\/b>\u00a0Lower harvests directly impacts farm incomes, leading to a reduction in rural consumption demand. This decline was evident in the decreased sales of tractors. When rural consumption falls, it creates a domino effect on other sectors of the economy, particularly Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG).<\/span><\/p>\n

Impact on GDP:\u00a0<\/b>The lack of consistent rainfall eventually reflects in our GDP. A\u00a0study<\/span><\/a>\u00a0by the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) stated that a\u00a05% deficit<\/b>\u00a0in rainfall due to the El Nino factor could result in a\u00a0loss of \u20b91,80,000 Cr or 1.75% of the GDP !!<\/b>
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

But there is some good news on the horizon\u2026<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

According to the IMD,\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o has officially ended<\/b>\u00a0in June and India is likely to experience an above-normal monsoon, with cumulative rainfall estimated at\u00a0106% of the LPA (a 6% surplus)<\/b>\u00a0by the end of the monsoon season. This is despite the rainfall in June being underwhelming.\u00a0Let\u2019s hope IMD\u2019s prediction comes true this year.<\/span><\/p>\n

A normal rainfall would not only support agricultural productivity, ensuring better harvests and food security, but also help replenish water reservoirs, stabilise ecosystems, and support the livelihoods of millions who depend on predictable weather patterns.<\/span><\/p>\n

Till the next time,<\/p>\n

Vijay<\/span><\/p>\n

CEO – InCred Money<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

June – the first month of India’s crucial monsoon season is about to end and here\u2019s a small highlight: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the country has received only 64.5 mm of rainfall between June 1 and 18, which is\u00a020% lower\u00a0than the long-period average (LPA) of 80.6 mm.\u00a0 (LPA is the average […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":5332,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-5329","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsletter","tag-newsletter"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHow a little boy disrupted our economy? - InCred Money<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/how_a_little_boy_disrupted_our_economy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How a little boy disrupted our economy? 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