{"id":10216,"date":"2025-08-10T06:43:29","date_gmt":"2025-08-10T06:43:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.incredmoney.com\/blog\/?p=10216"},"modified":"2025-08-12T12:32:08","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T12:32:08","slug":"the-trillion-dollar-trick-fueling-us-stock-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/the-trillion-dollar-trick-fueling-us-stock-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"The Trillion-Dollar Trick Fueling US Stock Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The US is undoubtedly the global hub of innovation. Name a major technological advancement, and odds are that an American company is leading the charge. The US is also home to corporate giants with truly global footprints, including Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and more.<\/p>\n<p>These companies are not only revenue powerhouses, but profit machines. As their earnings have grown, it\u2019s no surprise that their stock prices, as well as indices like the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq, have soared.<\/p>\n<p>But there\u2019s an interesting twist to the story. Beyond their operational success, many of these companies rely on a clever piece of financial engineering to keep boosting shareholder value\u2014without actually changing their business operations.<\/p>\n<p>This tool? <strong>The Share Buyback.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>What\u2019s a Share Buyback?<\/h2>\n<p>In simple terms, a <strong>share buyback<\/strong> is when a company purchases its own shares from the market (or directly from shareholders).<\/p>\n<p>Like dividends, it\u2019s a way to give money back to shareholders.<\/p>\n<p>But here\u2019s the key difference: while dividends put cash directly into your pocket, <strong>buybacks can make the value of your shares go up \u2014 without the company having to earn a single extra rupee in profit.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>And that\u2019s exactly why Corporate America loves them.<\/p>\n<h2>Why Buybacks Are Corporate America\u2019s Favourite Weapon<\/h2>\n<p><strong>1. Boosting Share Price via EPS<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>When a company buys back shares, it reduces the number of shares outstanding. Even if profits stay the same, Earnings Per Share (EPS) goes up because the profit is now divided among fewer shares.<\/p>\n<p>Higher EPS often means higher stock prices, because investors and algorithms alike see \u201cgrowth\u201d and reward the stock.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Example:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Before Buyback<\/strong><br \/>\nProfit: \u20b9100 crore<br \/>\nShares outstanding: 10 crore<br \/>\nEPS = \u20b910<\/li>\n<li><strong>Buyback <\/strong><br \/>\nCompany buys back 2 crore shares \u2192 8 crore shares remain<br \/>\nProfit still \u20b9100 crore<\/li>\n<li><strong>After Buyback<br \/>\n<\/strong>EPS = \u20b912.50 (Rs 100 Crore \/ 8 Crore shares) \u2192 up 25% without any real profit growth<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If the P\/E ratio remains the same, the stock price rises proportionally.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. Better Return Ratios<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Buybacks are funded from reserves (like dividends). This reduces the equity base, which can improve metrics like <strong>Return on Equity (ROE) and Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)<\/strong> \u2014 even without any real operational improvements.<\/p>\n<p><strong>3. Flexibility<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Unlike dividends (which create an expectation of regular payouts), buybacks are a one-time decision. Companies can pull the trigger when market conditions are favourable, and pause them during tougher times.<\/p>\n<h2>The Scale of US Buybacks<\/h2>\n<p>As of early August 2025, US companies had announced buybacks worth <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><a style=\"color: #3366ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/resource\/wall-street-shrugs-off-tariff-panic-as-buybacks-hit-all-time-high\/#:~:text=Year%2Dto%2Ddate%2C%20buyback,buybacks%20peaked%20earlier%20this%20year.\">$926 billion (~\u20b977.26 lakh crore)<\/a><\/span>. Goldman Sachs expects this to cross $1 trillion (~\u20b983.5 lakh crore) by the year-end.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_10217\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10217\" style=\"width: 437px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-10217\" src=\"https:\/\/www.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unnamed-300x201.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"437\" height=\"293\" srcset=\"https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/10063435\/unnamed-300x201.png 300w, https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/10063435\/unnamed-1024x687.png 1024w, https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/10063435\/unnamed-768x515.png 768w, https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/10063435\/unnamed.png 1106w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 437px) 100vw, 437px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-10217\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Goldman Sachs<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><em><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>That\u2019s nearly a trillion dollars not going into factories, R&amp;D, or hiring, but straight into buying back shares.<\/strong><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<h2>EPS Growth vs. Profit Growth: A Telling Comparison<\/h2>\n<p>From 2020 to 2024, the biggest US companies saw EPS grow faster than their net profits \u2014 thanks, in part, to buybacks:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-10219\" src=\"https:\/\/www.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Frame-1171276710-1-224x300.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"352\" height=\"471\" srcset=\"https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/10063637\/Frame-1171276710-1-224x300.png 224w, https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/10063637\/Frame-1171276710-1-763x1024.png 763w, https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/10063637\/Frame-1171276710-1-768x1030.png 768w, https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/10063637\/Frame-1171276710-1-1145x1536.png 1145w, https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/10063637\/Frame-1171276710-1.png 1317w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 352px) 100vw, 352px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Looking at Buybacks with a critical lens<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Signal of Limited Growth Opportunities:<\/strong> If a company has too much spare cash and no better way to invest it, it may opt for buybacks.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Financial Engineering, Not Real Growth:<\/strong> Ratios improve, but the company itself isn\u2019t producing more goods or services.<\/li>\n<li><strong>No Broader Economic Impact:<\/strong> Unlike new factories or product development, buybacks don\u2019t create jobs or expand the economy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Why India Hasn\u2019t Embraced Buybacks Like the US<\/h2>\n<p><strong>1. Different Stage of Corporate Maturity<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Many large US companies are capital-light and mature, they don\u2019t need to reinvest much in physical assets. In India, to this day, there are only a handful of companies that can be considered mature and capital-light (e.g., IT, FMCG, Consumer Discretionary). A large portion of the big players \u2014 such as banks, NBFCs, telecom companies, auto manufacturers, infrastructure firms, and oil &amp; gas companies, operate in capital-heavy sectors with limited free cash to return to shareholders.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. Tax Rules Have Been a Moving Target<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In India, the taxation of dividends and buybacks has constantly shifted:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Pre-2016:<\/strong> Dividends tax-free for shareholders, but companies paid Dividend Distribution Tax (DDT). Buybacks taxed as capital gains for shareholders \u2192 Dividends more attractive.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2016\u20132019:<\/strong> High-net-worth shareholders taxed on dividends above \u20b910 lakh, making buybacks more appealing \u2192 IT companies led the buyback boom.<\/p>\n<p>Companies that undertook buybacks: TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL Tech<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-10220\" src=\"https:\/\/www.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-10-110531-300x263.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"495\" height=\"434\" srcset=\"https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/10063939\/Screenshot-2025-08-10-110531-300x263.png 300w, https:\/\/s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com\/devblogs.incredmoney.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/10063939\/Screenshot-2025-08-10-110531.png 618w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 495px) 100vw, 495px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong><br \/>\n2019-2024:<\/strong> DDT has been abolished, with dividends now taxed in the hands of investors at their marginal tax rate. While a buyback tax has been introduced, buybacks still remain more tax-efficient than dividends.<\/p>\n<p>Companies that undertook buybacks: TCS, L&amp;T, Bajaj Auto<\/p>\n<p><strong>Post-Oct 2024:<\/strong> Buybacks fully taxed as dividends, no cost deduction allowed \u2192 Dividends now more favourable again.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><em><strong>How taxation currently works:<\/strong> When a company buys back the shares, the entire amount you get is treated just like dividend income. It is added to your taxable income and taxed according to your marginal tax rate. You can\u2019t deduct what you originally paid for those shares before paying tax. However, you can claim that original cost as a \u201ccapital loss\u201d and use it to reduce taxes you pay on profits from selling other investments in the future. This makes share buybacks pretty expensive in terms of tax for Indian investors.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Effectively, just when Indian companies started to embrace buybacks, the tax advantage disappeared.<\/p>\n<h2>The Moral of the Story<\/h2>\n<p>In the US, buybacks thrive because of corporate maturity, capital-light models, and tax-friendly rules. In India, they\u2019ve been more of a passing phase\u2014derailed by shifting tax laws and less cash-rich corporate structures.<\/p>\n<p>While buybacks can be a powerful financial tool, they\u2019re not magic\u2014they don\u2019t create value for the economy, just for shareholders. For India, unless tax rules shift again, dividends will likely remain king.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>I hope you enjoyed this newsletter and if you did, feel free to share it with your friends and family.<\/p>\n<p>Also, if you have any topics that you would like us to cover or any other feedback, do write to us at connect@incredmoney.com<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Till the next time,<br \/>\nVijay<br \/>\nCEO &#8211; InCred Money<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The US is undoubtedly the global hub of innovation. Name a major technological advancement, and odds are that an American company is leading the charge. The US is also home to corporate giants with truly global footprints, including Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and more. These companies are not only revenue powerhouses, but profit machines. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":10236,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-10216","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsletter","tag-newsletter"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Trillion-Dollar Trick Fueling US Stock Prices - InCred Money<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/devblog.incredmoney.com\/blog\/the-trillion-dollar-trick-fueling-us-stock-prices\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Trillion-Dollar Trick Fueling US Stock Prices - InCred Money\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The US is undoubtedly the global hub of innovation. 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Name a major technological advancement, and odds are that an American company is leading the charge. The US is also home to corporate giants with truly global footprints, including Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and more. These companies are not only revenue powerhouses, but profit machines. 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